China & India IN. The USA OUT? Tariffs, Alliances & Supply Chains [Podcast]

Global manufacturing is entering a more volatile era. Tariffs are changing with little warning, political alliances are becoming less predictable, and supply chains that once felt stable now carry real strategic risk. In this episode of China Manufacturing Decoded, Adrian and Renaud discuss what these shifts mean in practice for companies that actually make physical products. Using the latest U.S.–India tariff deal as a case study, they explain why China still matters, why India is becoming increasingly important, and how smart manufacturers should think about “China + 1,” not as a political statement, but as a practical way to reduce risk, control costs, and keep products flowing to market.

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Listen to the episode or watch on YouTube

Episode Sections:

• 01:07 – The big question: are U.S. allies turning toward China, or simply hedging?
• 07:29 – Evidence that many countries are deepening economic ties with China — and why China’s export machine keeps getting stronger.
• 15:21 – Economics vs. defense: why Europe can engage China commercially while still relying heavily on the U.S. and NATO for security.
• 19:07 – Why India is the most interesting case after its border clash with China and its earlier “de-risking” push.
• 24:27 – How the U.S.–India negotiation unfolded and what led to the flat 18% tariff deal.
• 26:10 – What the deal means for electronics and why India becomes a serious “China + 1” assembly option.
• 30:08 – India’s new trade win with the EU — zero tariffs for many goods, and why opening will stay gradual.
• 32:04 – Signs of an India–China thaw: faster customs, pressure to buy Chinese machinery, and the looming EV debate.
• 34:42 – Practical takeaway for manufacturers: keep China for depth, add India for resilience (and Sofeast’s India capability)

Further reading

• WSJ – U.S. Will Cut Tariffs on India to 18% in Trade Deal
• Reuters — South Korea, China, Japan trade dialogue
• Reuters — Germany still closer to U.S. than China
• Financial Times — EU hedging concerns
• WSJ — U.S. India tariff deal & smartphone export surge
• The Sofeast Group’s Indian Facility – Serenial

Image credit

“Prime Minister Keir Starmer visits China” by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street on Flickr (https://flickr.com/photos/49707497@N06/55065624892), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)